EcoService Models Library (ESML)
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: Ecopath Model Narragansett Bay, USA (EM-965)
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EM Identity and Description
EM Identification (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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EM Short Name
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Ecopath Model Narragansett Bay, USA | * |
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EM Full Name
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Ecopath Model Narragansett Bay, USA | * |
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EM Source or Collection
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None | * |
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EM Source Document ID
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449 | * |
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Document Author
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Anne Innes-Gold, Margaret Heinichen, Kelvin Gorospe, Corinne Truesdale, Jeremy Collie, Austin Humphries | * |
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Document Year
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2020 | * |
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Document Title
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Modeling 25 years of food web changes in Narragansett Bay (USA) as a tool for ecosystem-based management | * |
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Document Status
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Peer reviewed and published | * |
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Comments on Status
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Published journal manuscript | * |
Software and Access (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
| https://ecopath.org/downloads/ | * | |
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Contact Name
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Austin Humphries | * |
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Contact Address
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Department of Fisheries, 45 Upper College Rd, Kingston, RI 02881 | * |
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Contact Email
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humphries@uri.edu | * |
EM Description (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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Summary Description
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Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island, USA) is an estuary undergoing changes from a combination of rising water temperatures, nutrient fluxes, and human uses. In this study, we created an ecosystem food web model and evaluated its ability to predict functional group biomasses. Specifically, we used Ecopath to construct 2 mass-balanced models covering different time periods in Narragansett Bay: a historical model using data from 1994-1998 and a present-day model that represents 2014-2018. With the historical model as a starting point, we used Ecosim fit to time series data and projected forward to present-day values, forcing the model with both phytoplankton biomass and fishing mortality. The biomass of most mid- and upper trophic level groups increased by 2018, with the exception of carnivorous benthos, which experienced a large decline. There were changes in the composition of fisheries, with a large increase in recreational benthivorous fish landings and a decrease in commercial landings of planktivorous fish and suspension feeding benthos. The inclusion of fishing mortality and phytoplankton biomass as forcing functions, as well as adjusting the vulnerability levels of prey, greatly improved our model fits for all functional groups with the exception of gelatinous zooplankton. Our ecosystem model was able to correctly predict the direction of change for all fish and fished invertebrate groups with a relatively high degree of precision, particularly for the upper trophic levels. Thus, this ecosystem model is broadly applicable and suitable to project trends in the Narragansett Bay food web associated with localized and adaptive ecosystem-based management. | * |
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Specific Policy or Decision Context Cited
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None identified | * |
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Biophysical Context
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NA | * |
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EM Scenario Drivers
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1) Time period from 1994 to 1998 and 2) time period from 2014 to 2018 | * |
EM Relationship to Other EMs or Applications
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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Method Only, Application of Method or Model Run
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Method + Application (multiple runs exist) ?Comment:Run 1: 1994-1998 |
Model Run Associated with a Specific EM Application ?Comment:Run 1: 1994-1998 |
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New or Pre-existing EM?
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Application of existing model | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
Related EMs (for example, other versions or derivations of this EM) described in ESML
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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Document ID for related EM
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?Comment:Document 450 is an additional source for this EM. |
?Comment:Document 450 is an additional source for this EM. |
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EM ID for related EM
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None | None |
EM Modeling Approach
EM Relationship to Time (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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EM Temporal Extent
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1994-1998 | 2014-2018 |
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EM Time Dependence
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time-dependent | * |
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EM Time Reference (Future/Past)
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past time | * |
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EM Time Continuity
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discrete | * |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Value
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4 | * |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Unit
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Year | * |
EM spatial extent (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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Bounding Type
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Physiographic or ecological | * |
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Spatial Extent Name
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Narragansett Bay | * |
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Spatial Extent Area (Magnitude)
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100-1000 km^2 | * |
Spatial Distribution of Computations (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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EM Spatial Distribution
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spatially lumped (in all cases) | * |
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Spatial Grain Type
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Not applicable | * |
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Spatial Grain Size
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Not applicable | * |
EM Structure and Computation Approach (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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EM Computational Approach
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Analytic | * |
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EM Determinism
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deterministic | * |
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Statistical Estimation of EM
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* |
Model Checking Procedures Used (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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Model Calibration Reported?
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Unclear | * |
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Model Goodness of Fit Reported?
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No | * |
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Goodness of Fit (metric| value | unit)
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None | * |
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Model Operational Validation Reported?
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Unclear | * |
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Model Uncertainty Analysis Reported?
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Unclear | * |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Reported?
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Unclear | * |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Include Interactions?
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Not applicable | * |
EM Locations, Environments, Ecology
Location of EM Application (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
Terrestrial location (Classification hierarchy: Continent > Country > U.S. State [United States only])
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| EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
| None | * |
Marine location (Classification hierarchy: Realm > Region > Province > Ecoregion)
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| EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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Centroid Lat/Long (Decimal Degree)
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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Centroid Latitude
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41.62 | * |
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Centroid Longitude
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71.35 | * |
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Centroid Datum
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WGS84 | * |
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Centroid Coordinates Status
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Estimated | * |
Environments and Scales Modeled (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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EM Environmental Sub-Class
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Near Coastal Marine and Estuarine | * |
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Specific Environment Type
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Coastal bay | * |
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EM Ecological Scale
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Ecological scale is finer than that of the Environmental Sub-class | * |
Organisms modeled (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)
Scale of differentiation of organisms modeled
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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EM Organismal Scale
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Guild or Assemblage | * |
Taxonomic level and name of organisms or groups identified
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| EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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EnviroAtlas URL
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| EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
| Big game hunting recreation demand | Big game hunting recreation demand |
EM Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) potentially modeled, by classification system
* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left
CICES v 4.3 - Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (Section > Division > Group > Class)
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| EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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(Environmental Subclass > Ecological End-Product (EEP) > EEP Subclass > EEP Modifier)
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| EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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EM Variable Names (and Units)
* Note that for runs, variable name is displayed only where data for that variable differed by run AND those differences were reported in the source document. Where differences occurred but were not reported, the variable is not listed. Click on variable name to view details.
Predictor
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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Driving Variables (and Units)
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||
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Constant or Factor Variables (and Units)
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None | * |
Intermediate
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EM ID
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EM-965 | Narragansett Bay 2014-2018 |
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Intermediate (Computed) Variables (and Units)
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None | * |
Response
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