EcoService Models Library (ESML)

Document: Envisioning Puget Sound Alternative Futures: PSNERP Final Report (Doc-313)

313
Authors
Bolte, J. and Vache, K.
Year
2010
Title
Envisioning Puget Sound Alternative Futures: PSNERP Final Report
Document Type
Report
Abstract
Oregon State University, with support from the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and in support of the Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Restoration Project, completed an analysis of alternative future regional trajectories of landscape change for the Puget Sound region. This effort developed three scenarios of change: 1) Status Quo, reflecting a continuation of current trends in the region, 2) Managed Growth, reflecting the adoption of an aggressive set of land use management policies focusing on protecting and restoring ecosystem function and concentrating growth within Urban Growth Areas (UGA) and near regional growth centers, and 3) Unmanaged Growth, reflecting a relaxation of land use restrictions with limited protection of ecosystem functions. Analyses assumed a fixed population growth rate across all three scenarios, defined by the Washington Office of Financial Management county level growth estimates. Scenarios were generated using a spatially- and temporally-explicit alternative futures analysis model, Envision, previously developed by Oregon State University researchers. The model accepts as input a vector-based representation of the landscape and associated datasets describing relevant landscape characteristics, descriptors of various processes influencing landscape change, and a set of policies, or decision alternatives, which reflect scenario-specific land management alternatives. The model generates 1) a set of spatial coverages (maps) reflecting scenario outcomes of a variety of landscape variables, most notably land use/land cover, shoreline modifications, and population projections, and 2) a set of summary statistics describing landscape change variables summarized across spatial reporting units. Analyses were run on each of such sub-basins in the Puget Sound, and aggregated to providing Sound-wide results. This information is being used by PSNERP to project future impairment of ecosystem functions, goods, and services. The Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem project data also provide inputs to calculate aspects of future nearshore process degradation. Impairment and degradation are primary factors being used to define future conditions for the PSNERP General Investigation Study.
URL Exit
http://www.pugetsoundnearshore.org/supporting_documents/FRAP%20final%20report.pdf
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