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EM: Evoland v3.5 (with urban growth boundaries), Eugene, OR, USA (EM-12)
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EM Identity and Description
EM Identification
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EM ID
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EM-12 |
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EM Short Name
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Evoland v3.5 (bounded growth), Eugene, OR, USA |
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EM Full Name
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Evoland v3.5 (with urban growth boundaries), Eugene, OR, USA |
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EM Source or Collection
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Envision |
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EM Source Document ID
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47 ?Comment:Doc 183 is a secondary source for the Evoland model. |
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Document Author
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Guzy, M. R., Smith, C. L. , Bolte, J. P., Hulse, D. W. and Gregory, S. V. |
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Document Year
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2008 |
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Document Title
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Policy research using agent-based modeling to assess future impacts of urban expansion into farmlands and forests |
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Document Status
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Peer reviewed and published |
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Comments on Status
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Published journal manuscript |
Software and Access
http://evoland.bioe.orst.edu/ ?Comment:Software is likely available. |
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Contact Name
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Michael R. Guzy |
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Contact Address
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Oregon State University, Dept. of Biological and Ecological Engineering |
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Contact Email
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Not reported |
EM Description
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Summary Description
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**Note: A more recent version of this model exists. See Related EMs below for links to related models/applications.** ABSTRACT: "Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies…This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon." AUTHOR'S DESCRIPTION: "Two general scenarios for urban expansion were created to set the bounds on what might be possible for the McKenzie-Willamette study area. One scenario, fish conservation, tried to accommodate urban expansion, but gave the most weight to policies that would produce resilience and ecosystem services to restore threatened fish populations. The other scenario, unconstrained development, reversed the weighting. The 35 policies in the fish conservation scenario are designed to maintain urban growth boundaries (UGB), accommodate human population growth through increased urban densities, promote land conservation through best-conservation practices on agricultural and forest lands, and make rural land-use conversions that benefit fish. In the unconstrained development scenario, 13 policies are mainly concerned with allowing urban expansion in locations desired by landowners. Urban expansion in this scenario was not constrained by the extent of the UGB, and the policies are not intended to create conservation land uses." |
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Specific Policy or Decision Context Cited
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Authors Description: " By policy, we mean land management options that span the domains of zoning, agricultural and forest production, environmental protection, and urban development, including the associated regulations, laws, and practices. The policies we used in our SES simulations include urban containment policies…We also used policies modeled on agricultural practices that affect ecoystem services and capital…" |
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Biophysical Context
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No additional description provided |
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EM Scenario Drivers
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Five scenarios that include urban growth boundaries and various combinations of unconstrainted development, fish conservation, agriculture and forest reserves. ?Comment:Additional alternatives included adding agricultural and forest reserves, and adding or removing urban growth boundaries to the three main scenarios. |
EM Relationship to Other EMs or Applications
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Method Only, Application of Method or Model Run
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Method + Application (multiple runs exist) View EM Runs |
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New or Pre-existing EM?
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New or revised model |
Related EMs (for example, other versions or derivations of this EM) described in ESML
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Document ID for related EM
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Doc-47 | Doc-313 | Doc-314 ?Comment:Doc 183 is a secondary source for the Evoland model. |
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EM ID for related EM
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EM-333 | EM-369 |
EM Modeling Approach
EM Relationship to Time
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EM Temporal Extent
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1990-2050 |
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EM Time Dependence
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time-dependent |
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EM Time Reference (Future/Past)
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future time |
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EM Time Continuity
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discrete |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Value
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2 |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Unit
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Year |
EM Spatial Extent
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Bounding Type
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Geopolitical |
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Spatial Extent Name
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Junction of McKenzie and Willamette Rivers, adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield, Lane Co., Oregon, USA |
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Spatial Extent Area (Magnitude)
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10-100 km^2 |
Spatial Distribution of Computations
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EM Spatial Distribution
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spatially distributed (in at least some cases) ?Comment:Spatial grain for computations is comprised of 16,005 polygons of various size covering 7091 ha. |
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Spatial Grain Type
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area, for pixel or radial feature |
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Spatial Grain Size
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varies |
EM Structure and Computation Approach
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EM Computational Approach
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Numeric |
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EM Determinism
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stochastic |
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Statistical Estimation of EM
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Comment:Agent based modeling results in response indices. |
Model Checking Procedures Used
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Model Calibration Reported?
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Unclear |
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Model Goodness of Fit Reported?
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No |
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Goodness of Fit (metric| value | unit)
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None |
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Model Operational Validation Reported?
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No |
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Model Uncertainty Analysis Reported?
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No |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Reported?
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No ?Comment:Sensitivity analysis performed for agent values only. |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Include Interactions?
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Not applicable |
EM Locations, Environments, Ecology
Location of EM Application
Terrestrial location (Classification hierarchy: Continent > Country > U.S. State [United States only])
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Marine location (Classification hierarchy: Realm > Region > Province > Ecoregion)
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| None |
Centroid Lat/Long (Decimal Degree)
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Centroid Latitude
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44.11 |
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Centroid Longitude
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-123.09 |
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Centroid Datum
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WGS84 |
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Centroid Coordinates Status
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Estimated |
Environments and Scales Modeled
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EM Environmental Sub-Class
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Rivers and Streams | Forests | Agroecosystems | Created Greenspace |
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Specific Environment Type
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Agricultural-urban interface at river junction |
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EM Ecological Scale
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Ecological scale is finer than that of the Environmental Sub-class |
Scale and taxa of organisms modeled
Scale of differentiation of organisms modeled
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EM Organismal Scale
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Not applicable |
Taxonomic level and name of organisms or groups identified
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EnviroAtlas URL
em.detail.enviroAtlasURLHelp
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| Dasymetric Allocation of Population, GAP Ecological Systems, The National Hydrography Dataset (NHD), Percent Natural Land Cover in Stream Buffer , Hectares of Vegetable Crops, Employment Rate |
EM Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) potentially modeled, by classification system
CICES v 4.3 - Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (Section > Division > Group > Class)
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(Environmental Subclass > Ecological End-Product (EEP) > EEP Subclass > EEP Modifier)
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EM Variable Names (and Units)
Predictor
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Intermediate
Response
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Observed Response Variables (and Units)
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None |
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Computed Response Variables (and Units)
view details (7 variables)
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