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EM: HexSim- Adding space to Covid19 disease model Oregon, USA (EM-1050)
Collapse All
Expand AllEM Identity and Description
EM Identification
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EM ID
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EM-1050 |
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EM Short Name
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COVID-19 space disease model, Oregon, USA |
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EM Full Name
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HexSim- Adding space to Covid19 disease model Oregon, USA |
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EM Source or Collection
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US EPA |
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EM Source Document ID
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500 |
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Document Author
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Schumaker, N. and S.M. Watkins |
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Document Year
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2021 |
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Document Title
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Adding Space to Disease Models: A Case Study with COVID-19 in Oregon, USA |
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Document Status
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Peer reviewed and published |
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Comments on Status
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Published journal manuscript |
Software and Access
| www,hexsim.net | |
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Contact Name
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Nathan Schumaker |
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Contact Address
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Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University Corvallis, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA |
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Contact Email
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schumakn@onid.oregonstate.edu |
EM Description
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Summary Description
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ABSTRACT: "We selected the COVID-19 outbreak in the state of Oregon, USA as a system for developing a general geographically nuanced epidemiological forecasting model that balances simplicity, realism, and accessibility. Using the life history simulator HexSim, we inserted a mathematical SIRD disease model into a spatially explicit framework, creating a distributed array of linked compartment models. Our spatial model introduced few additional parameters, but casting the SIRD equations into a geographic setting significantly altered the system’s emergent dynamics. Relative to the non-spatial model, our simple spatial model better replicated the record of observed infection rates in Oregon. We also observed that estimates of vaccination efficacy drawn from the non-spatial model tended to be higher than those obtained from models that incorporate geographic variation. Our spatially explicit SIRD simulations of COVID-19 in Oregon suggest that modest additions of spatial complexity can bring considerable realism to a traditional disease model. |
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Specific Policy or Decision Context Cited
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None |
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Biophysical Context
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spatial density affecting transmission rates |
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EM Scenario Drivers
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None reported |
EM Relationship to Other EMs or Applications
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Method Only, Application of Method or Model Run
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Method + Application |
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New or Pre-existing EM?
em.detail.newOrExistHelp
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New or revised model |
Related EMs (for example, other versions or derivations of this EM) described in ESML
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Document ID for related EM
em.detail.relatedEmDocumentIdHelp
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None |
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EM ID for related EM
em.detail.relatedEmEmIdHelp
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None |
EM Modeling Approach
EM Relationship to Time
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EM Temporal Extent
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2021 |
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EM Time Dependence
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time-dependent |
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EM Time Reference (Future/Past)
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past time |
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EM Time Continuity
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discrete |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Value
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1 |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Unit
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Day |
EM Spatial Extent
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Bounding Type
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Geopolitical |
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Spatial Extent Name
em.detail.extentNameHelp
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Oregon |
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Spatial Extent Area (Magnitude)
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100,000-1,000,000 km^2 |
Spatial Distribution of Computations
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EM Spatial Distribution
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spatially distributed (in at least some cases) |
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Spatial Grain Type
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area, for pixel or radial feature |
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Spatial Grain Size
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21.65 ha |
EM Structure and Computation Approach
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EM Computational Approach
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Numeric |
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EM Determinism
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deterministic |
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Statistical Estimation of EM
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Model Checking Procedures Used
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Model Calibration Reported?
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No |
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Model Goodness of Fit Reported?
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No |
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Goodness of Fit (metric| value | unit)
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None |
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Model Operational Validation Reported?
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Yes |
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Model Uncertainty Analysis Reported?
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Unclear |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Reported?
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No |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Include Interactions?
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Not applicable |
EM Locations, Environments, Ecology
Location of EM Application
Terrestrial location (Classification hierarchy: Continent > Country > U.S. State [United States only])
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Marine location (Classification hierarchy: Realm > Region > Province > Ecoregion)
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| None |
Centroid Lat/Long (Decimal Degree)
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Centroid Latitude
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43.8 |
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Centroid Longitude
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120.55 |
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Centroid Datum
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None provided |
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Centroid Coordinates Status
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Estimated |
Environments and Scales Modeled
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EM Environmental Sub-Class
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Terrestrial Environment (sub-classes not fully specified) |
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Specific Environment Type
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urban settings |
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EM Ecological Scale
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Ecological scale is finer than that of the Environmental Sub-class |
Scale and taxa of organisms modeled
Scale of differentiation of organisms modeled
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EM Organismal Scale
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Not applicable |
Taxonomic level and name of organisms or groups identified
taxonomyHelp
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| None Available |
EnviroAtlas URL
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| Dasymetric Allocation of Population |
EM Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) potentially modeled, by classification system
CICES v 4.3 - Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (Section > Division > Group > Class)
em.detail.cicesHelp
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| None |
(Environmental Subclass > Ecological End-Product (EEP) > EEP Subclass > EEP Modifier)
fegs2Help
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| None |
EM Variable Names (and Units)
Predictor
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Driving Variables (and Units)
view details (6 variables)
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Constant or Factor Variables (and Units)
view details (7 variables)
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Intermediate
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Intermediate (Computed) Variables (and Units)
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None |
Response
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Observed Response Variables (and Units)
view details (1 variable)
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Computed Response Variables (and Units)
view details (3 variables)
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