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EM: GLOBIO-Aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems (EM-1068)
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Expand AllEM Identity and Description
EM Identification
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EM ID
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EM-1068 |
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EM Short Name
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GLOBIO-Aquatic, inland aquatic biodiversity model |
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EM Full Name
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GLOBIO-Aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems |
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EM Source or Collection
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None |
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EM Source Document ID
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506 |
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Document Author
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Janse, J.H., Kuiper, J.J., Weijters, M.J., Westerbeek, E.P., Jeuken, M.H.J.L., Bakkenes, M., Alkemade, R., Mooij, W.M. and Verhoeven, J.T.A. |
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Document Year
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2015 |
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Document Title
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GLOBIO-Aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems |
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Document Status
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Peer reviewed and published |
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Comments on Status
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Published journal manuscript |
Software and Access
| https://www.globio.info/globio-aquatic-a-global-model-of-human-impact-on-the-biodiversity-of-inland-aquatic-ecosystems | |
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Contact Name
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J.H. Janse |
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Contact Address
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PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Dept. of Nature and Rural Areas, P.O. Box 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands |
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Contact Email
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jan.janse@pbl.nl |
EM Description
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Summary Description
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Biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems – rivers, lakes and wetlands – is undergoing rapid global decline. Major drivers are land use change, eutrophication, hydrological disturbance, climate change, overexploitation and invasive species. We developed a global model for assessing the dominant human impacts on inland aquatic biodiversity. The system consists of a biodiversity model, named GLOBIO-Aquatic, that is embedded in the IMAGE model framework, i.e. linked to models for demography, economy, land use changes, climate change, nutrient emissions, a global hydrological model and a global map of water bodies. The biodiversity model is based on a recompilation of existing data, thereby scaling-up from local/regional case-studies to global trends. We compared species composition in impacted lakes, rivers and wetlands to that in comparable undisturbed systems. We focussed on broad categories of human-induced pressures that are relevant at the global scale. The drivers currently included are catchment land use changes and nutrient loading affecting water quality, and hydrological disturbance and climate change affecting water quantity. The resulting relative mean abundance of original species is used as indicator for biodiversity intactness. For lakes, we used dominance of harmful algal blooms as an additional indicator. The results show that there is a significant negative relation between biodiversity intactness and these stressors in all types of freshwater ecosystems. In heavily used catchments, standing water bodies would lose about 80% of their biodiversity intactness and running waters about 70%, while severe hydrological disturbance would result in losses of about 80% in running waters and more than 50% in floodplain wetlands. As an illustration, an analysis using the OECD ‘baseline scenario’ shows a considerable decline of the biodiversity intactness in still existing water bodies in 2000, especially in temperate and subtropical regions, and a further decline especially in tropical regions in 2050. Historical loss of wetland areas is not yet included in these results. The model may inform policy makers at the global level in what regions aquatic biodiversity will be affected most and by what causes, and allows for scenario analysis to evaluate policy options. |
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Specific Policy or Decision Context Cited
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None identified |
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Biophysical Context
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Global inland aquatic ecosystems |
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EM Scenario Drivers
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Non provided |
EM Relationship to Other EMs or Applications
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Method Only, Application of Method or Model Run
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Method + Application |
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New or Pre-existing EM?
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New or revised model |
Related EMs (for example, other versions or derivations of this EM) described in ESML
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Document ID for related EM
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None |
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EM ID for related EM
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None |
EM Modeling Approach
EM Relationship to Time
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EM Temporal Extent
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2000-2050 |
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EM Time Dependence
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time-dependent |
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EM Time Reference (Future/Past)
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both |
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EM Time Continuity
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discrete |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Value
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50 |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Unit
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Year |
EM Spatial Extent
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Bounding Type
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Multiple unrelated locations (e.g., meta-analysis) |
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Spatial Extent Name
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Global inland aquatic ecosystems |
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Spatial Extent Area (Magnitude)
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>1,000,000 km^2 |
Spatial Distribution of Computations
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EM Spatial Distribution
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spatially distributed (in at least some cases) |
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Spatial Grain Type
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area, for pixel or radial feature |
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Spatial Grain Size
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30' x 30' |
EM Structure and Computation Approach
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EM Computational Approach
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Analytic |
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EM Determinism
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deterministic |
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Statistical Estimation of EM
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Model Checking Procedures Used
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Model Calibration Reported?
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None |
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Model Goodness of Fit Reported?
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None |
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Goodness of Fit (metric| value | unit)
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None |
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Model Operational Validation Reported?
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None |
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Model Uncertainty Analysis Reported?
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None |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Reported?
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None |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Include Interactions?
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None |
EM Locations, Environments, Ecology
Location of EM Application
Terrestrial location (Classification hierarchy: Continent > Country > U.S. State [United States only])
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| None |
Marine location (Classification hierarchy: Realm > Region > Province > Ecoregion)
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| None |
Centroid Lat/Long (Decimal Degree)
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Centroid Latitude
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0 |
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Centroid Longitude
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0 |
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Centroid Datum
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None provided |
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Centroid Coordinates Status
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Not applicable |
Environments and Scales Modeled
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EM Environmental Sub-Class
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Aquatic Environment (sub-classes not fully specified) |
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Specific Environment Type
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Global inland aquatic ecosystems |
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EM Ecological Scale
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Ecological scale corresponds to the Environmental Sub-class |
Scale and taxa of organisms modeled
Scale of differentiation of organisms modeled
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EM Organismal Scale
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Community |
Taxonomic level and name of organisms or groups identified
taxonomyHelp
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| None Available |
EnviroAtlas URL
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| None Available |
EM Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) potentially modeled, by classification system
CICES v 4.3 - Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (Section > Division > Group > Class)
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(Environmental Subclass > Ecological End-Product (EEP) > EEP Subclass > EEP Modifier)
fegs2Help
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| None |
EM Variable Names (and Units)
Predictor
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Driving Variables (and Units)
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None |
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Constant or Factor Variables (and Units)
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None |
Intermediate
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Intermediate (Computed) Variables (and Units)
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None |
Response
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Observed Response Variables (and Units)
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None |
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Computed Response Variables (and Units)
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None |