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EM: Water storage in Lago Lucchetti, Puerto Rico, USA (EM-421)
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EM Identity and Description
EM Identification
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EM ID
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EM-421 |
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EM Short Name
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Water storage in Lago Lucchetti, Puerto Rico, USA |
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EM Full Name
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Water storage in Lago Lucchetti, Puerto Rico, USA |
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EM Source or Collection
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US EPA |
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EM Source Document ID
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336 |
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Document Author
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Bousquin, J., W.S. Fisher, J. Carriger, and E. Huertas |
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Document Year
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2014 |
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Document Title
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A Bayesian belief network approach to explore alternative decisions for sediment control and water storage capacity at Lago Lucchetti, Puerto Rico |
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Document Status
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Peer reviewed and published |
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Comments on Status
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Published EPA report |
Software and Access
| Not applicable | |
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Contact Name
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Susan Yee |
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Contact Address
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NHEERL Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze FL 32561 |
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Contact Email
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yee.susan@epa.gov |
EM Description
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Summary Description
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AUTHORS DESCRIPTION: " A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was developed to characterize the effects of sediment accumulation on the water storage capacity of Lago Lucchetti (located in southwest Puerto Rico) and to forecast the life expectancy (usefulness) of the reservoir under different management scenarios. The conceptual approach included water and sediment delivery from two sources, from the Lucchetti watershed and from a tunnel linking Lago Lucchetti to three upstream reservoirs. Variables in the model included precipitation and erosion factors (soil type, landscape slope, and land use) applied to the Lucchetti watershed and to watersheds of the upstream reservoirs. The lack of available data for water and sediment flows in the watershed and through tunnels connecting the reservoirs led to several unique methods for network data acquisition. Status quo model runs demonstrated that sediment trapping has continuously declined in all four reservoirs since their construction and that every year a greater proportion of sediment is moving downstream through tunnels or spillways. The model compared favorably with incidental measured data in the region. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that current sediment accumulation in Lago Lucchetti can be attributed in large part to sediment erosion from the Lucchetti watershed with only minor influence (~8%) from upstream reservoirs. Two decision scenarios were explored by including additional nodes for (1) partial and full conversion of sungrown land use to shadegrown coffee cultivation in the Lucchetti watershed and (2) partial or complete dredging the reservoir. Both management actions were examined singly and in combination for effects on reservoir life expectancy (beyond the year 2000) with varying water capacity targets. Using 50% water storage capacity as a target, model runs for status quo (no decision implemented) resulted in a probability range that averaged 5.57 years (or 50% water storage capacity in the year 2005). Partial and full conversion of land from sungrown to shadegrown coffee cultivation raised the life expectancy to 5.89 and 6.57 years, respectively. Partial and complete dredging of the reservoir resulted in a life expectancy of 37.3 and 40.7 years, and full implementation of both management options resulted in a life expectancy of 44.4 years." |
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Specific Policy or Decision Context Cited
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None reported |
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Biophysical Context
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No additional reported |
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EM Scenario Drivers
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Management alternatives |
EM Relationship to Other EMs or Applications
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Method Only, Application of Method or Model Run
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Method + Application (multiple runs exist) |
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New or Pre-existing EM?
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New or revised model |
Related EMs (for example, other versions or derivations of this EM) described in ESML
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Document ID for related EM
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None |
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EM ID for related EM
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None |
EM Modeling Approach
EM Relationship to Time
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EM Temporal Extent
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1962-2006 |
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EM Time Dependence
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time-dependent |
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EM Time Reference (Future/Past)
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future time |
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EM Time Continuity
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discrete |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Value
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1 |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Unit
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Year |
EM Spatial Extent
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Bounding Type
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Watershed/Catchment/HUC |
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Spatial Extent Name
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Guanica Bay watershed |
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Spatial Extent Area (Magnitude)
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100-1000 km^2 |
Spatial Distribution of Computations
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EM Spatial Distribution
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spatially distributed (in at least some cases) |
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Spatial Grain Type
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area, for pixel or radial feature |
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Spatial Grain Size
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Not reported |
EM Structure and Computation Approach
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EM Computational Approach
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Numeric |
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EM Determinism
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deterministic |
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Statistical Estimation of EM
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Model Checking Procedures Used
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Model Calibration Reported?
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Yes |
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Model Goodness of Fit Reported?
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No |
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Goodness of Fit (metric| value | unit)
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None |
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Model Operational Validation Reported?
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No |
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Model Uncertainty Analysis Reported?
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No |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Reported?
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No |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Include Interactions?
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Not applicable |
EM Locations, Environments, Ecology
Location of EM Application
Terrestrial location (Classification hierarchy: Continent > Country > U.S. State [United States only])
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Marine location (Classification hierarchy: Realm > Region > Province > Ecoregion)
em.detail.relationToSpaceMarineHelp
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| None |
Centroid Lat/Long (Decimal Degree)
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Centroid Latitude
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18.09 |
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Centroid Longitude
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-66.86 |
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Centroid Datum
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WGS84 |
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Centroid Coordinates Status
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Estimated |
Environments and Scales Modeled
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EM Environmental Sub-Class
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Lakes and Ponds |
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Specific Environment Type
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Lago Luchetti |
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EM Ecological Scale
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Ecological scale corresponds to the Environmental Sub-class |
Scale and taxa of organisms modeled
Scale of differentiation of organisms modeled
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EM Organismal Scale
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Not applicable |
Taxonomic level and name of organisms or groups identified
taxonomyHelp
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| None Available |
EnviroAtlas URL
em.detail.enviroAtlasURLHelp
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| National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHD PlusV2), Average Annual Precipitation |
EM Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) potentially modeled, by classification system
CICES v 4.3 - Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (Section > Division > Group > Class)
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(Environmental Subclass > Ecological End-Product (EEP) > EEP Subclass > EEP Modifier)
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EM Variable Names (and Units)
Predictor
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Driving Variables (and Units)
view details (6 variables)
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Constant or Factor Variables (and Units)
view details (6 variables)
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Intermediate
Response
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Observed Response Variables (and Units)
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None |
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Computed Response Variables (and Units)
view details (3 variables)
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