EcoService Models Library (ESML)
Home
Search EMs
My
EMs 
Learn about
ESML
View ESML Data Maploading
EM: Natural amenities and rural population migration, USA (EM-653)
Collapse All
Expand All
- Export Data to Spreadsheet (Free Viewers)
- View Variable Relationship Diagram (PDF)(1 pp, 80 KB, About PDF)
EM Identity and Description
EM Identification
|
EM ID
em.detail.idHelp
?
|
EM-653 |
|
EM Short Name
em.detail.shortNameHelp
?
|
Natural amenities and population migration, USA |
|
EM Full Name
em.detail.fullNameHelp
?
|
Natural amenities and rural population migration, USA |
|
EM Source or Collection
em.detail.emSourceOrCollectionHelp
?
|
USDA Forest Service |
|
EM Source Document ID
|
375 |
|
Document Author
em.detail.documentAuthorHelp
?
|
Cordell H. K., V. Heboyan, F. Santos, J. C. Bergstrom |
|
Document Year
em.detail.documentYearHelp
?
|
2011 |
|
Document Title
em.detail.sourceIdHelp
?
|
Natural amenities and rural population migration |
|
Document Status
em.detail.statusCategoryHelp
?
|
Peer reviewed and published |
|
Comments on Status
em.detail.commentsOnStatusHelp
?
|
Published report |
Software and Access
| Not applicable | |
|
Contact Name
em.detail.contactNameHelp
?
|
Ken Cordell |
|
Contact Address
|
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Athens, GA 30602 |
|
Contact Email
|
Not reported |
EM Description
|
Summary Description
em.detail.summaryDescriptionHelp
?
|
ABSTRACT: "Research suggests that significant relationships exist between rural population change and natural amenities. Thus, understanding and predicting domestic migration trends as a function of changes in natural amenities is important for effective regional growth and development policies and strategies. In this study, we first estimated an econometric model which showed the effects of natural amenities, such as climate and landscape variables, on rural population migration patterns in the United States between 1990 and 2007. The estimated model was then used to predict the effects of changes in these variables on rural county net migration and population growth to 2060 under alternative future climate and land use projections. Results suggest that people prefer rural areas with mild winters and cooler summers; thus we can expect a direct impact of climate change on population migration when areas associated with these conditions change. Results also suggest preference for varied landscapes that feature a mix of forest land and open space (e g , pasture and range land). During the projection period from 2010 to 2060 in the United States, changes in natural amenities were predicted to have positive effects on rural population migration trends in most parts of the Intermountain and Pacific Northwest regions, and some parts of the Southeastern, South Central, and Northeastern U S regions (e g , Southern Appalachian Mountains, Ozark Mountains, northern New England). Changes in natural amenities were predicted to have negative effects on rural population migration trends during the projection period in Midwestern regions (e g , Great Plains and North Central regions)." AUTHOR'S DESCRIPTION: "This model was estimated for 2,014 rural counties in the continental United States using various national data bases and sources. The estimated model was then used to predict the effects of changes in these variables on rural county net migration and population growth to 2060 under alternative future climate and land use projections." |
|
Specific Policy or Decision Context Cited
em.detail.policyDecisionContextHelp
?
|
None identified |
|
Biophysical Context
|
No additional description provided |
|
EM Scenario Drivers
em.detail.scenarioDriverHelp
?
|
Climate projections based on the CGCM 3 1 general circulation model of moderate warming (IPCC). The A1B scenario assumes a growing world population that peaks in the mid-century and balanced technological growth. |
EM Relationship to Other EMs or Applications
|
Method Only, Application of Method or Model Run
em.detail.methodOrAppHelp
?
|
Method + Application |
|
New or Pre-existing EM?
em.detail.newOrExistHelp
?
|
New or revised model |
Related EMs (for example, other versions or derivations of this EM) described in ESML
em.detail.relatedEmHelp
?
|
Document ID for related EM
em.detail.relatedEmDocumentIdHelp
?
|
None |
|
EM ID for related EM
em.detail.relatedEmEmIdHelp
?
|
None |
EM Modeling Approach
EM Relationship to Time
|
EM Temporal Extent
em.detail.tempExtentHelp
?
|
1982-2060 |
|
EM Time Dependence
em.detail.timeDependencyHelp
?
|
time-dependent |
|
EM Time Reference (Future/Past)
em.detail.futurePastHelp
?
|
future time |
|
EM Time Continuity
em.detail.continueDiscreteHelp
?
|
discrete |
|
EM Temporal Grain Size Value
em.detail.tempGrainSizeHelp
?
|
1 |
|
EM Temporal Grain Size Unit
em.detail.tempGrainSizeUnitHelp
?
|
Year |
EM Spatial Extent
|
Bounding Type
em.detail.boundingTypeHelp
?
|
Geopolitical |
|
Spatial Extent Name
em.detail.extentNameHelp
?
|
continental United States |
|
Spatial Extent Area (Magnitude)
em.detail.extentAreaHelp
?
|
>1,000,000 km^2 |
Spatial Distribution of Computations
|
EM Spatial Distribution
em.detail.distributeLumpHelp
?
|
spatially distributed (in at least some cases) |
|
Spatial Grain Type
em.detail.spGrainTypeHelp
?
|
map scale, for cartographic feature |
|
Spatial Grain Size
em.detail.spGrainSizeHelp
?
|
varies |
EM Structure and Computation Approach
|
EM Computational Approach
em.detail.emComputationalApproachHelp
?
|
Numeric |
|
EM Determinism
em.detail.deterStochHelp
?
|
deterministic |
|
Statistical Estimation of EM
em.detail.statisticalEstimationHelp
?
|
|
Model Checking Procedures Used
|
Model Calibration Reported?
em.detail.calibrationHelp
?
|
Yes |
|
Model Goodness of Fit Reported?
em.detail.goodnessFitHelp
?
|
No |
|
Goodness of Fit (metric| value | unit)
em.detail.goodnessFitValuesHelp
?
|
None |
|
Model Operational Validation Reported?
em.detail.validationHelp
?
|
No |
|
Model Uncertainty Analysis Reported?
em.detail.uncertaintyAnalysisHelp
?
|
No |
|
Model Sensitivity Analysis Reported?
em.detail.sensAnalysisHelp
?
|
No |
|
Model Sensitivity Analysis Include Interactions?
em.detail.interactionConsiderHelp
?
|
Not applicable |
EM Locations, Environments, Ecology
Location of EM Application
Terrestrial location (Classification hierarchy: Continent > Country > U.S. State [United States only])
em.detail.relationToSpaceTerrestrialHelp
?
|
Marine location (Classification hierarchy: Realm > Region > Province > Ecoregion)
em.detail.relationToSpaceMarineHelp
?
| None |
Centroid Lat/Long (Decimal Degree)
|
Centroid Latitude
em.detail.ddLatHelp
?
|
39.8 |
|
Centroid Longitude
em.detail.ddLongHelp
?
|
-98.55 |
|
Centroid Datum
em.detail.datumHelp
?
|
WGS84 |
|
Centroid Coordinates Status
em.detail.coordinateStatusHelp
?
|
Estimated |
Environments and Scales Modeled
|
EM Environmental Sub-Class
em.detail.emEnvironmentalSubclassHelp
?
|
Rivers and Streams | Inland Wetlands | Lakes and Ponds | Near Coastal Marine and Estuarine | Forests | Agroecosystems | Grasslands | Scrubland/Shrubland | Barren |
|
Specific Environment Type
em.detail.specificEnvTypeHelp
?
|
Terrestrial environments including water bodies and coastlines |
|
EM Ecological Scale
em.detail.ecoScaleHelp
?
|
Ecological scale corresponds to the Environmental Sub-class |
Scale and taxa of organisms modeled
Scale of differentiation of organisms modeled
em.detail.nameOfOrgsOrGroupsHelp
?
|
EM Organismal Scale
em.detail.orgScaleHelp
?
|
Not applicable |
Taxonomic level and name of organisms or groups identified
taxonomyHelp
?
| None Available |
EnviroAtlas URL
em.detail.enviroAtlasURLHelp
?
| Dasymetric Allocation of Population, GAP Ecological Systems, Average Annual Precipitation, Total Employment, Employment Rate |
EM Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) potentially modeled, by classification system
CICES v 4.3 - Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (Section > Division > Group > Class)
em.detail.cicesHelp
?
|
(Environmental Subclass > Ecological End-Product (EEP) > EEP Subclass > EEP Modifier)
fegs2Help
?
| None |
EM Variable Names (and Units)
Predictor
em.detail.variablesPredictorHelp
?
Intermediate
|
Intermediate (Computed) Variables (and Units)
view details (4 variables)
em.detail.intermediateVariableHelp
?
|
Response
em.detail.variablesResponseHelp
?
|
Observed Response Variables (and Units)
em.detail.observedResponseHelp
?
|
None |
|
Computed Response Variables (and Units)
view details (1 variable)
em.detail.computedResponseHelp
?
|