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EM Identity and Description

EM Identification (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
EM Short Name em.detail.shortNameHelp ?	Evoland v3.5 (unbounded growth), Eugene, OR, USA	*	*	*
EM Full Name em.detail.fullNameHelp ?	Evoland v3.5 (without urban growth boundaries), Eugene, OR, USA	*	*	*
EM Source or Collection em.detail.emSourceOrCollectionHelp ?	Envision	*	*	*
EM Source Document ID	47 ? Comment: Doc 183 is a secondary source for the Evoland model.	*	*	*
Document Author em.detail.documentAuthorHelp ?	Guzy, M. R., Smith, C. L. , Bolte, J. P., Hulse, D. W. and Gregory, S. V.	*	*	*
Document Year em.detail.documentYearHelp ?	2008	*	*	*
Document Title em.detail.sourceIdHelp ?	Policy research using agent-based modeling to assess future impacts of urban expansion into farmlands and forests	*	*	*
Document Status em.detail.statusCategoryHelp ?	Peer reviewed and published	*	*	*
Comments on Status em.detail.commentsOnStatusHelp ?	Published journal manuscript	*	*	*

Software and Access (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
EM Software Access info Exit em.detail.modelAccessInformationHelp ?	http://evoland.bioe.orst.edu/	*	*	*
Contact Name em.detail.contactNameHelp ?	Michael R. Guzy	*	*	*
Contact Address	Oregon State University, Dept. of Biological and Ecological Engineering	*	*	*
Contact Email	Not reported	*	*	*

EM Description (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Summary Description em.detail.summaryDescriptionHelp ?	Note: A more recent version of this model exists. See Related EMs below for links to related models/applications. ABSTRACT: "Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies…This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon." AUTHOR'S DESCRIPTION: "Two general scenarios for urban expansion were created to set the bounds on what might be possible for the McKenzie-Willamette study area. One scenario, fish conservation, tried to accommodate urban expansion, but gave the most weight to policies that would produce resilience and ecosystem services to restore threatened fish populations. The other scenario, unconstrained development, reversed the weighting. The 35 policies in the fish conservation scenario are designed to maintain urban growth boundaries (UGB), accommodate human population growth through increased urban densities, promote land conservation through best-conservation practices on agricultural and forest lands, and make rural land-use conversions that benefit fish. In the unconstrained development scenario, 13 policies are mainly concerned with allowing urban expansion in locations desired by landowners. Urban expansion in this scenario was not constrained by the extent of the UGB, and the policies are not intended to create conservation land uses."	*	*	*
Specific Policy or Decision Context Cited em.detail.policyDecisionContextHelp ?	Authors Description: " By policy, we mean land management options that span the domains of zoning, agricultural and forest production, environmental protection, and urban development, including the associated regulations, laws, and practices. The policies we used in our SES simulations include urban containment policies…We also used policies modeled on agricultural practices that affect ecoystem services and capital…"	*	*	*
Biophysical Context	No additional description provided	*	*	*
EM Scenario Drivers em.detail.scenarioDriverHelp ?	Three scenarios without urban growth boundaries, and with various combinations of unconstrainted development, fish conservation, and agriculture and forest reserves.	Unconstrained development (without urban growth boundaries).	Unconstrained development with reserves (without urban growth boundaries).	Combined fish conservation and unconstrained development (without urban growth boundaries or reserves).

EM Relationship to Other EMs or Applications

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Method Only, Application of Method or Model Run em.detail.methodOrAppHelp ?	Method + Application (multiple runs exist)	Model Run Associated with a Specific EM Application	Model Run Associated with a Specific EM Application	Model Run Associated with a Specific EM Application
New or Pre-existing EM? em.detail.newOrExistHelp ?	New or revised model	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves

Related EMs (for example, other versions or derivations of this EM) described in ESML

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Document ID for related EM em.detail.relatedEmDocumentIdHelp ?	Doc-183 \| Doc-47 \| Doc-313 \| Doc-314 ? Comment: Doc 183 is a secondary source for the Evoland model.	Doc-17 \| Doc-56 \| Doc-183	Doc-17 \| Doc-56 \| Doc-183	Doc-17 \| Doc-56 \| Doc-183
EM ID for related EM em.detail.relatedEmEmIdHelp ?	EM-12 \| EM-369	None	None	None

EM Modeling Approach

EM Relationship to Time (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
EM Temporal Extent em.detail.tempExtentHelp ?	1990-2050	*	*	*
EM Time Dependence em.detail.timeDependencyHelp ?	time-dependent	*	*	*
EM Time Reference (Future/Past) em.detail.futurePastHelp ?	future time	*	*	*
EM Time Continuity em.detail.continueDiscreteHelp ?	discrete	*	*	*
EM Temporal Grain Size Value em.detail.tempGrainSizeHelp ?	2	*	*	*
EM Temporal Grain Size Unit em.detail.tempGrainSizeUnitHelp ?	Year	*	*	*

EM spatial extent (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Bounding Type em.detail.boundingTypeHelp ?	Geopolitical	*	*	*
Spatial Extent Name em.detail.extentNameHelp ?	Junction of McKenzie and Willamette Rivers, adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield, Lane Co., Oregon, USA	*	*	*
Spatial Extent Area (Magnitude) em.detail.extentAreaHelp ?	10-100 km^2	*	*	*

Spatial Distribution of Computations (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
EM Spatial Distribution em.detail.distributeLumpHelp ?	spatially distributed (in at least some cases)	*	*	*
Spatial Grain Type em.detail.spGrainTypeHelp ?	area, for pixel or radial feature	*	*	*
Spatial Grain Size em.detail.spGrainSizeHelp ?	varies	*	*	*

EM Structure and Computation Approach (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
EM Computational Approach em.detail.emComputationalApproachHelp ?	Numeric	*	*	*
EM Determinism em.detail.deterStochHelp ?	stochastic	*	*	*
Statistical Estimation of EM em.detail.statisticalEstimationHelp ?	Other or unclear (comment)	*	*	*

Model Checking Procedures Used (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Model Calibration Reported? em.detail.calibrationHelp ?	Unclear	*	*	*
Model Goodness of Fit Reported? em.detail.goodnessFitHelp ?	No	*	*	*
Goodness of Fit (metric\| value \| unit) em.detail.goodnessFitValuesHelp ?	None	*	*	*
Model Operational Validation Reported? em.detail.validationHelp ?	No	*	*	*
Model Uncertainty Analysis Reported? em.detail.uncertaintyAnalysisHelp ?	No	*	*	*
Model Sensitivity Analysis Reported? em.detail.sensAnalysisHelp ?	No	*	*	*
Model Sensitivity Analysis Include Interactions? em.detail.interactionConsiderHelp ?	Not applicable	*	*	*

EM Locations, Environments, Ecology

Location of EM Application (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

Terrestrial location (Classification hierarchy: Continent > Country > U.S. State [United States only])

EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
North America United States Oregon	*	*	*

Marine location (Classification hierarchy: Realm > Region > Province > Ecoregion)

EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
None	*	*	*

Centroid Lat/Long (Decimal Degree)

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Centroid Latitude em.detail.ddLatHelp ?	44.11	*	*	*
Centroid Longitude em.detail.ddLongHelp ?	-123.09	*	*	*
Centroid Datum em.detail.datumHelp ?	WGS84	*	*	*
Centroid Coordinates Status em.detail.coordinateStatusHelp ?	Estimated	*	*	*

Environments and Scales Modeled (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
EM Environmental Sub-Class em.detail.emEnvironmentalSubclassHelp ?	Rivers and Streams \| Forests \| Agroecosystems \| Created Greenspace	*	*	*
Specific Environment Type em.detail.specificEnvTypeHelp ?	Agricultural-urban interface at river junction	*	*	*
EM Ecological Scale em.detail.ecoScaleHelp ?	Ecological scale is finer than that of the Environmental Sub-class	*	*	*

Organisms modeled (* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left)

Scale of differentiation of organisms modeled

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
EM Organismal Scale em.detail.orgScaleHelp ?	Not applicable	*	*	*

Taxonomic level and name of organisms or groups identified

EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
other Fish Species Red-Legged Frog Osprey Western Terrestrial Garter Snake Little Brown Myotis Belted Kingfisher Wood Duck Northern River Otter Great Blue Heron Roughskin Newt Pacific Water Shrew American Beaver Mink Western Pond Turtle Killdeer Northwestern Salamander	*	*	*

EnviroAtlas URL

EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Dasymetric Allocation of Population, GAP Ecological Systems, The National Hydrography Dataset (NHD), Percent Natural Land Cover in Stream Buffer , Hectares of Vegetable Crops, Employment Rate	None Available	None Available	None Available

EM Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) potentially modeled, by classification system

* Note that run information is shown only where run data differ from the "parent" entry shown at left

CICES v 4.3 - Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (Section > Division > Group > Class)

EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
[Ecosystem] Regulation & Maintenance Maintenance of physical, chemical, biological conditions Lifecycle maintenance, habitat and gene pool protection Maintaining nursery populations and habitats	*	*	*

National Ecosystem Services Classification System (NESCS) Plus

(Environmental Subclass > Ecological End-Product (EEP) > EEP Subclass > EEP Modifier)

EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Forests (21) Composite (8) Presence of environmental class/subclass Site Characteristic Indicator Agroecosystems (22) Composite (8) Presence of environmental class/subclass Site Characteristic Indicator	*	*	*

EM Variable Names (and Units)

* Note that for runs, variable name is displayed only where data for that variable differed by run AND those differences were reported in the source document. Where differences occurred but were not reported, the variable is not listed. Click on variable name to view details.

To view run information for variables, select any variable below or view run data for all variables.

Predictor

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Driving Variables (and Units) em.detail.drivingVariableHelp ?	Area (cell) (m^2) Channel length (km) Fraction of neighborhood area (Not reported) Initial population density (human) (People ha^-1) Land use/land cover class (fine) (Not applicable) Mean household income ($ yr^-1) Real market value of land (initial) ($ m^-2) Revetment length (m) Riparian forest length (km) Road density (km km^-2) Suitability for irrigated agriculture (Not applicable)	Area (cell) (m^2) Channel length (km) Fraction of neighborhood area (Not reported) Initial population density (human) (People ha^-1) Land use/land cover class (fine) (Not applicable) Mean household income ($ yr^-1) Real market value of land (initial) ($ m^-2) Revetment length (m) Riparian forest length (km) Road density (km km^-2) Suitability for irrigated agriculture (Not applicable)	Area (cell) (m^2) Channel length (km) Fraction of neighborhood area (Not reported) Initial population density (human) (People ha^-1) Land use/land cover class (fine) (Not applicable) Mean household income ($ yr^-1) Real market value of land (initial) ($ m^-2) Revetment length (m) Riparian forest length (km) Road density (km km^-2) Suitability for irrigated agriculture (Not applicable)	Area (cell) (m^2) Channel length (km) Fraction of neighborhood area (Not reported) Initial population density (human) (People ha^-1) Land use/land cover class (fine) (Not applicable) Mean household income ($ yr^-1) Real market value of land (initial) ($ m^-2) Revetment length (m) Riparian forest length (km) Road density (km km^-2) Suitability for irrigated agriculture (Not applicable)
Constant or Factor Variables (and Units) em.detail.constantFactorVariableHelp ?	Economic resilience (unitless) Ecosystem health resilience (unitless) Occupied residential capacity target (Not reported) Occupied residential capacity threshold (Not reported) Policies (undifferentiated) (unitless) Population growth rate (human) (%) Residential capacity desired res0-4DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res16DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res4-9DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res9-16DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired rurresDUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity minimum suitability (all LU) (unitless) Residential capacity standardized (unitless) ScaledVolumeV1 (LULC) (unitless) SpeciesNumberFlagV1 (LULC) (Not applicable)	Economic resilience (unitless) Ecosystem health resilience (unitless) Occupied residential capacity target (Not reported) Occupied residential capacity threshold (Not reported) Policies (undifferentiated) (unitless) Population growth rate (human) (%) Residential capacity desired res0-4DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res16DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res4-9DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res9-16DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired rurresDUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity minimum suitability (all LU) (unitless) Residential capacity standardized (unitless) ScaledVolumeV1 (LULC) (unitless) SpeciesNumberFlagV1 (LULC) (Not applicable)	Economic resilience (unitless) Ecosystem health resilience (unitless) Occupied residential capacity target (Not reported) Occupied residential capacity threshold (Not reported) Policies (undifferentiated) (unitless) Population growth rate (human) (%) Residential capacity desired res0-4DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res16DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res4-9DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res9-16DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired rurresDUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity minimum suitability (all LU) (unitless) Residential capacity standardized (unitless) ScaledVolumeV1 (LULC) (unitless) SpeciesNumberFlagV1 (LULC) (Not applicable)	Economic resilience (unitless) Ecosystem health resilience (unitless) Occupied residential capacity target (Not reported) Occupied residential capacity threshold (Not reported) Policies (undifferentiated) (unitless) Population growth rate (human) (%) Residential capacity desired res0-4DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res16DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res4-9DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired res9-16DUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity desired rurresDUac standardized (unitless) Residential capacity minimum suitability (all LU) (unitless) Residential capacity standardized (unitless) ScaledVolumeV1 (LULC) (unitless) SpeciesNumberFlagV1 (LULC) (Not applicable)

Intermediate

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Intermediate (Computed) Variables (and Units) em.detail.intermediateVariableHelp ?	Average population density in neighborhood (People ha^-1) Distance to central business district (km) Distance to nearest designated cell type (Not reported) Fish number (Number of fish) Fish species richness (No. of fish species) Floodplain habitat (unitless) Percent of channel lacking revetment (%) Population density (human) (People ha^-1) Proportion of agricultural land buffering small streams (%) Proportion of developed land buffering small streams (%) Small stream index of biotic integrity (unitless) Upslope habitat (Not reported)	Average population density in neighborhood (People ha^-1) Distance to central business district (km) Distance to nearest designated cell type (Not reported) Fish number (Number of fish) Fish species richness (No. of fish species) Floodplain habitat (unitless) Percent of channel lacking revetment (%) Population density (human) (People ha^-1) Proportion of agricultural land buffering small streams (%) Proportion of developed land buffering small streams (%) Small stream index of biotic integrity (unitless) Upslope habitat (Not reported)	Average population density in neighborhood (People ha^-1) Distance to central business district (km) Distance to nearest designated cell type (Not reported) Fish number (Number of fish) Fish species richness (No. of fish species) Floodplain habitat (unitless) Percent of channel lacking revetment (%) Population density (human) (People ha^-1) Proportion of agricultural land buffering small streams (%) Proportion of developed land buffering small streams (%) Small stream index of biotic integrity (unitless) Upslope habitat (Not reported)	Average population density in neighborhood (People ha^-1) Distance to central business district (km) Distance to nearest designated cell type (Not reported) Fish number (Number of fish) Fish species richness (No. of fish species) Floodplain habitat (unitless) Percent of channel lacking revetment (%) Population density (human) (People ha^-1) Proportion of agricultural land buffering small streams (%) Proportion of developed land buffering small streams (%) Small stream index of biotic integrity (unitless) Upslope habitat (Not reported)

Response

EM ID em.detail.idHelp ?	EM-333	Run- Unconstrained development	Run-unconstrained develpmnt with reserves	Run - Combined without UGB or reserves
Observed Response Variables (and Units) em.detail.observedResponseHelp ?	None	*	*	*
Computed Response Variables (and Units) em.detail.computedResponseHelp ?	Built land use (%) Farm land use (%) Forest land use (%) Market value of land ($ m^-2) Other land use (%) Overall ecosystem health (unitless) Stream conditions for fish (unitless)	Built land use (%) Farm land use (%) Forest land use (%) Market value of land ($ m^-2) Other land use (%) Overall ecosystem health (unitless) Stream conditions for fish (unitless)	Built land use (%) Farm land use (%) Forest land use (%) Market value of land ($ m^-2) Other land use (%) Overall ecosystem health (unitless) Stream conditions for fish (unitless)	Built land use (%) Farm land use (%) Forest land use (%) Market value of land ($ m^-2) Other land use (%) Overall ecosystem health (unitless) Stream conditions for fish (unitless)

US EPA

EcoService Models Library (ESML)

View Runs

: Evoland v3.5 (without urban growth boundaries), Eugene, OR, USA (EM-333)