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EM: FORCLIM (FORests in a changing CLIMate) v2.9, Santiam watershed, OR, USA (EM-208)
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EM Identity and Description
EM Identification
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EM ID
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EM-208 |
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EM Short Name
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FORCLIM v2.9, Santiam watershed, OR, USA |
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EM Full Name
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FORCLIM (FORests in a changing CLIMate) v2.9, Santiam watershed, OR, USA |
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EM Source or Collection
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US EPA |
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EM Source Document ID
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23 ?Comment:Related document ID 22 is a secondary source providing tree species specific parameters in appendix. |
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Document Author
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Busing, R. T., Solomon, A. M., McKane, R. B. and Burdick, C. A. |
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Document Year
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2007 |
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Document Title
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Forest dynamics in Oregon landscapes: evaluation and application of an individual-based model |
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Document Status
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Peer reviewed and published |
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Comments on Status
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Published journal manuscript |
Software and Access
| Not applicable | |
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Contact Name
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Richard T. Busing |
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Contact Address
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U.S. Geological Survey, 200 SW 35th Street, Corvallis, Oregon 97333 USA |
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Contact Email
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rtbusing@aol.com |
EM Description
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Summary Description
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ABSTRACT: "The FORCLIM model of forest dynamics was tested against field survey data for its ability to simulate basal area and composition of old forests across broad climatic gradients in western Oregon, USA. The model was also tested for its ability to capture successional trends in ecoregions of the west Cascade Range. It was then applied to simulate present and future (1990-2050) forest landscape dynamics of a watershed in the west Cascades. Various regimes of climate change and harvesting in the watershed were considered in the landscape application." AUTHOR'S DESCRIPTION: "Effects of different management histories on the landscape were incorporated using the land management (conservation, plan, or development trend) and forest age categories…the plan trend was an intermediate alternative, representing the continuation of current policies and trends, whereas the conservation and development trends were possible alternatives…Non-forested areas were given a forest age of zero; forested areas were assigned to one of eight forest age classes: >0-20 yr, 21-40 yr, 41-60 yr, 61-80 yr, 81-200 yr, 201-400 yr, and >600 yr in 1990…two climate change scenarios were used, representing lower and upper extremes projected by a set of global climate models: (1) minor warming with drier summers, and (2) major warming with wetter conditions…For the first scenario, temperature was increased by 0.5°C in 2025 and by 1.5°C in 2045. Precipitation from October to March was increased 2% in 2025 and decreased 2% in 2045. Precipitation from April to September was decreased 4% in 2025 and 7% in 2045. For the second scenario, temperature was by increased 2.6°C in 2025 and by 3.2°C in 2045. Precipitation from October to March was increased 18% in 2025 and 22% in 2045. Precipitation from April to September was increased 14% in 2025 and 9% in 2045. |
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Specific Policy or Decision Context Cited
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None identified |
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Biophysical Context
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No additional description provided |
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EM Scenario Drivers
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Land Management (3); Climate Change (3) |
EM Relationship to Other EMs or Applications
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Method Only, Application of Method or Model Run
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Method + Application (multiple runs exist) View EM Runs ?Comment:Runs differentiated by scenario combination. |
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New or Pre-existing EM?
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Application of existing model |
Related EMs (for example, other versions or derivations of this EM) described in ESML
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Document ID for related EM
em.detail.relatedEmDocumentIdHelp
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Doc-22 | Doc-23 ?Comment:Related document ID 22 is a secondary source providing tree species specific parameters in appendix. |
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EM ID for related EM
em.detail.relatedEmEmIdHelp
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EM-146 | EM-186 | EM-224 |
EM Modeling Approach
EM Relationship to Time
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EM Temporal Extent
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1990-2050 |
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EM Time Dependence
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time-dependent |
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EM Time Reference (Future/Past)
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future time |
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EM Time Continuity
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discrete |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Value
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1 |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Unit
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Year |
EM Spatial Extent
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Bounding Type
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Watershed/Catchment/HUC |
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Spatial Extent Name
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South Santiam watershed |
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Spatial Extent Area (Magnitude)
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100-1000 km^2 |
Spatial Distribution of Computations
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EM Spatial Distribution
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spatially distributed (in at least some cases) |
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Spatial Grain Type
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area, for pixel or radial feature |
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Spatial Grain Size
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0.08 ha |
EM Structure and Computation Approach
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EM Computational Approach
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Numeric |
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EM Determinism
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deterministic |
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Statistical Estimation of EM
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Model Checking Procedures Used
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Model Calibration Reported?
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No |
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Model Goodness of Fit Reported?
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No |
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Goodness of Fit (metric| value | unit)
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None |
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Model Operational Validation Reported?
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No |
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Model Uncertainty Analysis Reported?
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No |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Reported?
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No |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Include Interactions?
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N/A |
EM Locations, Environments, Ecology
Location of EM Application
Terrestrial location (Classification hierarchy: Continent > Country > U.S. State [United States only])
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Marine location (Classification hierarchy: Realm > Region > Province > Ecoregion)
em.detail.relationToSpaceMarineHelp
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| None |
Centroid Lat/Long (Decimal Degree)
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Centroid Latitude
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44.24 |
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Centroid Longitude
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-122.24 |
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Centroid Datum
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None provided |
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Centroid Coordinates Status
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Provided |
Environments and Scales Modeled
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EM Environmental Sub-Class
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Forests |
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Specific Environment Type
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primarily Conifer Forest |
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EM Ecological Scale
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Ecological scale is finer than that of the Environmental Sub-class |
Scale and taxa of organisms modeled
Scale of differentiation of organisms modeled
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EM Organismal Scale
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Species |
Taxonomic level and name of organisms or groups identified
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EnviroAtlas URL
em.detail.enviroAtlasURLHelp
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| GAP Ecological Systems, Average Annual Precipitation |
EM Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) potentially modeled, by classification system
CICES v 4.3 - Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (Section > Division > Group > Class)
em.detail.cicesHelp
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(Environmental Subclass > Ecological End-Product (EEP) > EEP Subclass > EEP Modifier)
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| None |
EM Variable Names (and Units)
Predictor
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Intermediate
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Intermediate (Computed) Variables (and Units)
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None |
Response
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Observed Response Variables (and Units)
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None |
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Computed Response Variables (and Units)
view details (3 variables)
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