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EM: Envision, Puget Sound, WA, USA (EM-371)
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Expand AllEM Identity and Description
EM Identification
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EM ID
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EM-371 |
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EM Short Name
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Envision, Puget Sound, WA, USA |
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EM Full Name
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Envision, Puget Sound, WA, USA |
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EM Source or Collection
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Envision |
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EM Source Document ID
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313 |
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Document Author
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Bolte, J. and Vache, K. |
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Document Year
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2010 |
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Document Title
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Envisioning Puget Sound Alternative Futures: PSNERP Final Report |
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Document Status
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Documentation is peer-reviewed and published |
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Comments on Status
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Published report |
Software and Access
| http://envision.bioe.orst.edu | |
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Contact Name
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John Bolte |
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Contact Address
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Oregon State University, Dept. of Biological & Ecological Engineering, 116C Gilmore Hall, Corvallis, OR 97333 |
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Contact Email
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boltej@engr.orst.edu |
EM Description
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Summary Description
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SUMMARY: "...the Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Restoration Project, completed an analysis of alternative future regional trajectories of landscape change for the Puget Sound region. This effort developed three scenarios of change: 1) Status Quo, reflecting a continuation of current trends in the region, 2) Managed Growth, reflecting the adoption of an aggressive set of land use management policies focusing on protecting and restoring ecosystem function and concentrating growth within Urban Growth Areas (UGA) and near regional growth centers, and 3) Unmanaged Growth, reflecting a relaxation of land use restrictions with limited protection of ecosystem functions. Analyses assumed a fixed population growth rate across all three scenarios, defined by the Washington Office of Financial Management county level growth estimates. Scenarios were generated using a spatially- and temporally-explicit alternative futures analysis model, Envision, previously developed by Oregon State University researchers. The model accepts as input a vector-based representation of the landscape and associated datasets describing relevant landscape characteristics, descriptors of various processes influencing landscape change, and a set of policies, or decision alternatives, which reflect scenario-specific land management alternatives. The model generates 1) a set of spatial coverages (maps) reflecting scenario outcomes of a variety of landscape variables, most notably land use/land cover, shoreline modifications, and population projections, and 2) a set of summary statistics describing landscape change variables summarized across spatial reporting units. Analyses were run on each of such sub-basins in the Puget Sound, and aggregated to providing Sound-wide results. This information is being used by PSNERP to project future impairment of ecosystem functions, goods, and services. The Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem project data also provide inputs to calculate aspects of future nearshore process degradation. Impairment and degradation are primary factors being used to define future conditions for the PSNERP General Investigation Study." AUTHOR'S DESCRIPTION: "In this report, we document the application of an alternative futures analysis framework that incorporates these capabilities to the analysis of alternative future trajectories in the Puget Sound region. This framework, Envision (Bolte et al, 2007; Hulse et al. 2008) is a spatially and temporally explicit, standards-based, open source toolset specifically designed to facilitate alternative futures analyses. It employs a multiagent-based modeling approach that contains a robust capability for defining alternative management strategies and scenarios, incorporating a variety of landscape change processes, and creating maps of alternative landscape trajectories, expressed though a variety of metrics defined in an application-specific way." ABOUT ENVISION (ENVISION WEBSITE): "Central to Envision, and conceived at the s |
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Specific Policy or Decision Context Cited
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None identified |
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Biophysical Context
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No additional description provided |
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EM Scenario Drivers
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Alternative future land management strategies (status quo, managed growth, unmanaged growth) |
EM Relationship to Other EMs or Applications
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Method Only, Application of Method or Model Run
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Model Run Associated with a Specific EM Application |
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New or Pre-existing EM?
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Model Run for: Unmanaged growth future land management strategy |
Related EMs (for example, other versions or derivations of this EM) described in ESML
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Document ID for related EM
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Doc-314 |
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EM ID for related EM
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None |
EM Modeling Approach
EM Relationship to Time
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EM Temporal Extent
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2000-2060 |
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EM Time Dependence
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time-dependent |
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EM Time Reference (Future/Past)
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future time |
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EM Time Continuity
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discrete |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Value
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1 |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Unit
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Year |
EM Spatial Extent
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Bounding Type
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Watershed/Catchment/HUC |
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Spatial Extent Name
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Puget Sound watershed |
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Spatial Extent Area (Magnitude)
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10,000-100,000 km^2 |
Spatial Distribution of Computations
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EM Spatial Distribution
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spatially distributed (in at least some cases) |
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Spatial Grain Type
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Irregular |
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Spatial Grain Size
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Varies |
EM Structure and Computation Approach
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EM Computational Approach
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Numeric |
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EM Determinism
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deterministic |
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Statistical Estimation of EM
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Model Checking Procedures Used
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Model Calibration Reported?
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Unclear |
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Model Goodness of Fit Reported?
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Not applicable |
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Goodness of Fit (metric| value | unit)
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None |
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Model Operational Validation Reported?
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Not applicable |
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Model Uncertainty Analysis Reported?
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Not applicable |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Reported?
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Not applicable |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Include Interactions?
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Not applicable |
EM Locations, Environments, Ecology
Location of EM Application
Terrestrial location (Classification hierarchy: Continent > Country > U.S. State [United States only])
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Marine location (Classification hierarchy: Realm > Region > Province > Ecoregion)
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Centroid Lat/Long (Decimal Degree)
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Centroid Latitude
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47.58 |
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Centroid Longitude
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-122.32 |
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Centroid Datum
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WGS84 |
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Centroid Coordinates Status
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Estimated |
Environments and Scales Modeled
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EM Environmental Sub-Class
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Aquatic Environment (sub-classes not fully specified) | Near Coastal Marine and Estuarine | Terrestrial Environment (sub-classes not fully specified) |
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Specific Environment Type
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Pacific NW US region, coastal to montane, urban to rural |
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EM Ecological Scale
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Ecological scale is finer than that of the Environmental Sub-class |
Scale and taxa of organisms modeled
Scale of differentiation of organisms modeled
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EM Organismal Scale
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Not applicable |
Taxonomic level and name of organisms or groups identified
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| None Available |
EnviroAtlas URL
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| None Available |
EM Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) potentially modeled, by classification system
CICES v 4.3 - Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (Section > Division > Group > Class)
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(Environmental Subclass > Ecological End-Product (EEP) > EEP Subclass > EEP Modifier)
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| None |
EM Variable Names (and Units)
Predictor
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Intermediate
Response
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