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EM: Application of chemical transport model CMAQ to policy decisions regarding PM2.5 in the UK (EM-1021)
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Expand AllEM Identity and Description
EM Identification
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EM ID
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EM-1021 |
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EM Short Name
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CMAQ chemical transport model, UK |
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EM Full Name
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Application of chemical transport model CMAQ to policy decisions regarding PM2.5 in the UK |
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EM Source or Collection
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None |
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EM Source Document ID
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483 |
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Document Author
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Chemel, C., Fisher, B.E.A., Kong, X., Francis, X.V., Sokhi, R.S., Good, N., Collins, W.J. and Folberth, G.A. |
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Document Year
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2014 |
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Document Title
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Application of chemical transport model CMAQ to policy decisions regarding PM2.5 in the UK |
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Document Status
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Peer reviewed and published |
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Comments on Status
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Published journal manuscript |
Software and Access
| https://www.epa.gov/cmaq/download-cmaq | |
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Contact Name
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B.E.A. Fisher |
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Contact Address
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Little Beeches, Headley Road, Leatherhead KT22 8PT, UK. |
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Contact Email
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None provided |
EM Description
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Summary Description
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This paper shows how the advanced chemical transport model CMAQ can be used to estimate future levels of PM2.5 in the UK, the key air pollutant in terms of human health effects, but one which is largely made up from the formation of secondary particulate in the atmosphere. By adding the primary particulate contribution from typical urban roads and including a margin for error, it is concluded that the current indicative limit value for PM2.5 will largely be met in 2020 assuming 2006 meteorological conditions. Contributions to annual average regional PM2.5 concentration from wild fires in Europe in 2006 and from possible climate change between 2006 and 2020 are shown to be small compared with the change in PM2.5 concentration arising from changes in emissions between 2006 and 2020. The contribution from emissions from major industrial sources regulated in the UK is estimated from additional CMAQ calculations. The potential source strength of these emissions is a useful indicator of the linearity of the response of the atmosphere to changes in emissions. Uncertainties in the modelling of regional and local sources are taken into account based on previous evaluations of the models. Future actual trends in emissions mean that exceedences of limit values may arise, and these and further research into PM2.5 health effects will need to be part of the future strategy to manage PM2.5 concentrations. |
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Specific Policy or Decision Context Cited
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None identified |
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Biophysical Context
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United kingdom atmosphere |
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EM Scenario Drivers
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2020 European emissions scenario |
EM Relationship to Other EMs or Applications
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Method Only, Application of Method or Model Run
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Method + Application |
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New or Pre-existing EM?
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Application of existing model |
Related EMs (for example, other versions or derivations of this EM) described in ESML
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Document ID for related EM
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Doc-478 | Doc-481 | Doc-482 |
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EM ID for related EM
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EM-1012 | EM-1019 | EM-1020 |
EM Modeling Approach
EM Relationship to Time
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EM Temporal Extent
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2006-2020 |
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EM Time Dependence
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time-dependent |
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EM Time Reference (Future/Past)
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both |
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EM Time Continuity
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discrete |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Value
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14 |
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EM Temporal Grain Size Unit
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Year |
EM Spatial Extent
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Bounding Type
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Geopolitical |
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Spatial Extent Name
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United Kingdom |
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Spatial Extent Area (Magnitude)
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100,000-1,000,000 km^2 |
Spatial Distribution of Computations
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EM Spatial Distribution
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spatially lumped (in all cases) |
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Spatial Grain Type
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Not applicable |
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Spatial Grain Size
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Not applicable |
EM Structure and Computation Approach
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EM Computational Approach
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Analytic |
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EM Determinism
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deterministic |
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Statistical Estimation of EM
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Model Checking Procedures Used
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Model Calibration Reported?
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Yes |
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Model Goodness of Fit Reported?
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Yes ?Comment:Two versions of CMAQ (v4.6 and v4.7) were used to assess performance. Both values are provided here respectively. |
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Goodness of Fit (metric| value | unit)
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Model Operational Validation Reported?
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No |
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Model Uncertainty Analysis Reported?
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Unclear |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Reported?
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Unclear |
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Model Sensitivity Analysis Include Interactions?
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Not applicable |
EM Locations, Environments, Ecology
Location of EM Application
Terrestrial location (Classification hierarchy: Continent > Country > U.S. State [United States only])
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Marine location (Classification hierarchy: Realm > Region > Province > Ecoregion)
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Centroid Lat/Long (Decimal Degree)
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Centroid Latitude
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54 |
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Centroid Longitude
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4 |
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Centroid Datum
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WGS84 |
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Centroid Coordinates Status
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Estimated |
Environments and Scales Modeled
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EM Environmental Sub-Class
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Atmosphere |
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Specific Environment Type
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United Kingdom atmosphere |
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EM Ecological Scale
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Ecological scale corresponds to the Environmental Sub-class |
Scale and taxa of organisms modeled
Scale of differentiation of organisms modeled
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EM Organismal Scale
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Not applicable |
Taxonomic level and name of organisms or groups identified
taxonomyHelp
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| None Available |
EnviroAtlas URL
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| Average Annual Precipitation, Average Annual Daily Potential Wind Energy |
EM Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) potentially modeled, by classification system
CICES v 4.3 - Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (Section > Division > Group > Class)
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(Environmental Subclass > Ecological End-Product (EEP) > EEP Subclass > EEP Modifier)
fegs2Help
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EM Variable Names (and Units)
Predictor
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Intermediate
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Intermediate (Computed) Variables (and Units)
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None |
Response
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