EcoService Models Library (ESML)

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Uncertainty

The ideal EM for use in a given situation should provide enough information to identify sources of uncertainty, ideally quantitatively.  The degree of confidence that can be placed in results from a documented application of an EM will be higher if modeling included and documented any of the following procedures, which are all reflected in ESML descriptors:

  • Model goodness of fit (tendency of model estimates to fit a given data set)
  • Model validation (evaluation of model performance against other data or models). ?
  • Characterization of predictor or response variable variability
  • Sensitivity analysis (assessment of response variable sensitivity to predictor variable variation)
  • Uncertainty analysis (evaluation of the sources and magnitude of uncertainty in EM responses)

View the ESML Data Map to see a full listing of ESML descriptors.